最优权组合预测法在采煤沉陷变形预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

鲁小红 《测绘通报》2020,(4):111-115

煤矿地表沉降变形预测多基于煤矿开采沉陷预计理论展开，基于变形分析理论的变形预测模型目前多集中在单模型预测。本文基于组合预测思想，以非等间隔灰色预测模型与BP神经网络模型为预测单模型，以陕西北部某煤矿采煤工作面上方实测地表沉降值为数据源，以最优加权法对单模型预测结果开展了最优权组合，组合模型中两种单模型的权重分别为0.466 7、0.533 3。选取部分监测点的预测结果进行模型精度评价，结果表明：3种预测模型精度均达到了一级。经对比3种模型预测结果，最优权组合预测的模型精度较单模型明显提升，预测结果较非等间隔灰色预测模型与BP神经网络预测模型有明显增益。  相似文献   

最小二乘定权方法对流动重力计算结果的影响     

刘东  崔兴平  王青华  穆宝胜  张勇 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(12):1233-1236

在处理流动重力观测数据时,采用最小二乘方法解算由权系数和观测值组成的超定方程组,得到最优权值,并利用最优权计算重力值。结果表明,等权方法计算得到的结果点值精度不高,但包含了较全的重力异常地震分析预报信息;不等权方法计算得到的结果点值精度较高,但削弱了有用的重力异常地震分析预报信息;最小二乘方法计算得到的结果不但有较高的点值精度,对M_S4.0及以上地震的分析预报效果也最优。  相似文献   

Researches on the Internal Molecular Weight Uniformity of Chitosan Biomaterials     

LANG Xuqian  LI Yang  SUN Guohui  ZHOU Zhongzheng  LI Jing  FENG Chao  KONG Ming  LIU Ya  CHENG Xiaojie  CHEN Xiguang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(2):459-465

Uniform molecular weight(Mw)chitosan(CS)is highly demanded in medical biomaterial industry.This present article described heterogeneous degradation of CS in aqueous HCl/ethanol solution,in which progress uniform Mw CS was successfully prepared.The Mw distribution of CS was measured by gel permeation chromatography(GPC)analysis.Moreover,the structure and properties of degraded CS were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FT-IR),nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy(^1H NMR),X-ray diffraction(XRD)and thermogravimetric(TG)analysis.In addition,the biocompatibility of degraded CS was also assessed by hemolysis rate(HR)measurement.The Mw of CS dramatically decreased from 246 KDa to 76 k Da at the initial 30 min,and stabilized at 18 kDa after 24 h.GPC analysis results showed that the degraded CS molecular become homogenization.FT-IR and 1 H NMR analysis confirmed the basic structure of CS molecular backbone was not destroyed during this progress.Besides,the water solubility of CS was not significantly influenced by this reaction.Moreover,the XRD analysis revealed that crystallinity of degraded CS increased from 70.32% to 99.25%with time.The TG analysis showed improved thermal stability of degraded CS.HR measurement demonstrated the degraded CS possessed excellent biocompatibility.This simple and efficient heterogeneous degradation would open up a new route to produce uniform Mw CS.  相似文献   

观测卫星不足时的GPS/INS紧组合抗差自适应滤波     

田源  隋立芬  刘长建  王凌轩  陈泉余  田翌君 《测绘科学技术学报》2017,34(2)

常规GPS/INS紧组合抗差自适应滤波只适用于卫星数≥4的情况,且预测残差构造自适应因子要求观测值可靠。针对该局限性,对常规抗差自适应滤波算法做出两点改进:1)采用两步滤波,用第1步常规EKF滤波残差构造第二步抗差算法的粗差判别量;2)在第2步滤波用预测残差构造自适应因子时,剔除异常观测值对应的预测残差和预测残差协方差,以削弱观测异常对自适应因子的不良影响。实验结果表明,常规抗差算法在卫星数4时不适用。常规自适应滤波算法在观测值存在异常的情况下无法正确修正模型异常。改进后的抗差自适应滤波算法在组合系统观测卫星数4且观测值存在异常的情况下,仍能正确修正观测粗差和动力学模型异常,能够达到良好的导航精度。  相似文献   

Quantitative Assessment of the Ecological Vulnerability of Baiyangdian Wetlands in the North China Plain     

TIAN Jinghan  GUO Chenchen  WANG Jianhua 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2021,12(6):814-821

Quantitative assessment of vulnerability is a core aspect of wetland vulnerability research. Taking Baiyangdian (BYD) wetlands in the North China Plain as a study area and using the ‘cause-result’ model, 23 representative indicators from natural, social, sci-tech and economic elements were selected to construct an indicator system. A weight matrix was obtained by using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight value for each indicator. Based on the membership function in the fuzzy evaluation model, the membership degrees were determined to form a fuzzy relation matrix. Finally, the ecological vulnerability was quantitatively assessed based on the comprehensive evaluation index calculated by using a composite operator to combine the entropy weight matrix with the fuzzy relation matrix. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability levels of the BYD wetlands were comprehensively evaluated as Grade II, Grade Ⅲ, Grade IV, and Grade Ⅲ in 2010, 2011-2013, 2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. The ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands increased from low fragility in 2010 to general fragility in 2011-2013, and to high fragility in 2014, reflecting the fact that the wetland ecological condition was degenerating from 2010 to 2014. The ecological vulnerability status then turned back into general fragility during 2015-2017, indicating that the ecological situation of the BYD wetlands was starting to improve. However, the ecological status of the BYD wetlands on the whole is relatively less optimistic. The major factors affecting the ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands were found to be industrial smoke and dust emission, wetland water area, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, rate of industrial solid wastes disposed, GDP per capita, etc. This illustrates that it is a systematic project to regulate wetland vulnerability and to protect regional ecological security, which may offer researchers and policy-makers specific clues for concrete interventions.  相似文献   

考虑内定向误差的外方位元素精度分析     

山海涛  马淑宇  陈筱勇  初艳峰 《测绘科学》2007,32(1):24-25

在对数据质量的要求越来越严格的今天,我们对数据质量的评价也必须越来越系统、可靠。本文就是在系统分析的基础上推导出了求解外方位元素的误差传递模型,并从中分析了内定向误差对外方位元素精度的影响,从而改进和完善了外方位元素精度的评定方法,使得外方位元素精度的评定具有更高的精确性和可靠性。  相似文献   

多因素作用下石膏岩软化特性     

任松  李振元  邓高岭  刘伟  蒲文明 《岩土力学》2018,39(3):789-796

为了研究隧道施工过程中石膏质围岩软化特性,以三叠系下统嘉陵江组地层中的石膏岩为研究对象,进行了多因素正交软化试验研究,分析了浸泡时间、溶液温度、 浓度对石膏岩软化后力学参数的影响规律。研究结果表明：石膏岩的软化系数和弹性模量随着浸泡时间的增加而减小,减小速率也随之降低;软化系数和弹性模量随溶液温度的升高而呈线性减小;在影响石膏岩软化后力学参数3个因素中浸泡时间的影响最大,权值高达80%,温度次之,权重为16%左右,而 浓度对石膏岩的软化影响非常微弱;建立了浸泡时间与溶液温度两个因素耦合作用下石膏岩软化后单轴抗压强度与弹性模量变化情况预测公式。在试验数据及结论的基础上从围岩坚硬程度划分、防排水措施及支护措施等方面提出了石膏围岩隧道的施工措施及建议。  相似文献   

模糊多属性决策法在海底电缆路由方案比选中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

徐国强  徐翠玲  张志卫  闫文文 《海洋开发与管理》2017,34(11):37-41

海底电缆预选路由方案的比选需要参考多种指标,这些指标包含定量和定性两种,但各指标间的不可公度性,给路由方案的选择提出挑战。文章提出了一种基于离差思想和模糊向量投影的多属性决策法。首先引入三角模糊数,将定性指标合理量化,构建决策矩阵,规范化后运用离差思想求解各指标权重,然后计算各方案在正理想方案和负理想方案上的投影,最后求出相对贴近度,依据其大小比选出最佳方案。  相似文献   

Analysis of bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery for horse mackerel Trachurus capensis based on observer data     

JR Reed  SE Kerwath  CG Attwood 《African Journal of Marine Science》2017,39(3):279-291

The South African midwater trawl fishery targets adult horse mackerel Trachurus capensis. The bulk of the catch is taken by a single freezer-trawler, the biggest fishing vessel operating in South African waters. As fishing takes place off the south coast in ecologically sensitive areas, there are concerns about the potential impacts of this fishing operation on non-target species. Fishing behaviour and bycatch of this fishery from 2004 to 2014 were investigated by analysing observer records with regard to catch composition, volume and temporal and spatial patterns. The midwater trawl fishery was estimated to have caught 25 415 tonnes annually, with a bycatch of 6.9% of the total catch, by weight. There are species overlaps with various fisheries, namely the demersal trawl, small-pelagic, line, shark longline and squid fisheries, yet the total bycatch estimates from this fishery are generally small relative to catches taken in the target fisheries. Bycatch species with the highest average annual catches were chub mackerel Scomber japonicus, redeye roundherring Etrumeus whiteheadi, ribbonfish Lepidopus caudatus and hake Merluccius spp. Large-fauna bycatch species included sunfish Mola mola as well as a number of CITES II- and IUCN-listed species, such as Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena and thresher sharks Alopias spp. The 97.9% observer coverage is high and the 6.9% bycatch rate low compared to other South African fisheries; however, due to the large size of the individual hauls (average of 46.3 t), the average sampling rate of 1.56% is low. Our analyses suggest that bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery has been lower than in other South African fisheries and similar fisheries elsewhere, but due to the combination of high catch volumes and low sampling rates, estimation errors for rare species are high and there is a substantial risk of incidental unmonitored bycatch of rare large fauna and aggregations of small fauna. This could be mitigated by spatio-temporal management of this fishery, to avoid fishing in high-risk areas, and the introduction of an electronic monitoring programme.  相似文献   

基于合理权重赋值方法选择的多因素综合评价模型——以JCR中70种人文地理期刊为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

钟赛香  胡鹏  薛熙明  杨硕  朱佩娟 《地理学报》2015,70(12):2011-2031

针对地理学多因素综合评价中较少探讨指标权重赋值方法的选择,以及少有研究涉及人文地理期刊的多因素综合评价,本文设计了基于合理权重赋值方法选择的多因素综合评价模型,并将其应用于科学网数据库内的“期刊引证报告（JCR）”中分类为人文地理类的70种人文地理期刊的综合评价。该模型针对7种指标权重客观赋值方法,采用“异同比较”,分析不同方法在不同参数设置下和聚类与否情况下的权重值、评价值和评价序的变化特征与分布规律,并依据该变化特征与分布规律,实现了对各种方法的“优劣比较”和最优选择。应用该模型对JCR中70种人文地理期刊进行排序分等,其中排名第一的“全球环境变化和政策”等14种期刊为位列第一等分的高影响力期刊。本研究完善了多因素综合评价体系,也丰富了对人文地理期刊的认知。  相似文献